Australian Government Balance Sheet Management

Since almost eliminating net debt, the Australian Government%u2019s attention has turned to the financing of broader balance sheet liabilities, such as public sector superannuation. Australia will be developing a significant financial asset portfolio in the %u2018Future Fund%u2019 to smooth the financing of expenses through time. This raises the significant policy question of how best to manage the government balance sheet to reduce risk. This paper provides a framework for optimal balance sheet management. The major conclusions are that: %u2013 fiscal sustainability depends on both the expected path of future taxation and the risks around that path; %u2013 optimal balance sheet management requires knowledge of how risks affect the balance sheet (and therefore volatility in tax rates); and %u2013 the government%u2019s financial investment strategy should reduce the risk to government finances from macroeconomic shocks that permanently affect the budget. Based on this framework, we find that a Future Fund portfolio that included (amongst other potential investments) domestic nominal securities and equities of selected countries would reduce overall balance sheet risk.

Rethinking childhood ependymoma: a retrospective, multi-center analysis reveals poor long-term overall survival

Ependymoma is the third most common brain tumor in children, but there is a paucity of large studies with more than 10 years of follow-up examining the long-term survival and recurrence patterns of this disease. We conducted a retrospective chart review of 103 pediatric patients with WHO Grades II/III intracranial ependymoma, who were treated at Dana-Farber/Boston Children’s Cancer and Blood Disorders Center and Chicago’s Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital between 1985 and 2008, and an additional 360 ependymoma patients identified from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. For the institutional cohort, we evaluated clinical and histopathological prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) using the log-rank test, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional-hazards models. Overall survival rates were compared to those of the SEER cohort. Median follow-up time was 11 years. Ten-year OS and PFS were 50 ± 5% and 29 ± 5%, respectively. Findings were validated in the independent SEER cohort, with 10-year OS rates of 52 ± 3%. GTR and grade II pathology were associated with significantly improved OS. However, GTR was not curative for all children. Ten-year OS for patients treated with a GTR was 61 ± 7% and PFS was 36 ± 6%. Pathological examination confirmed most recurrent tumors to be ependymoma, and 74% occurred at the primary tumor site. Current treatment paradigms are not sufficient to provide long-term cure for children with ependymoma. Our findings highlight the urgent need to develop novel treatment approaches for this devastating disease. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11060-017-2568-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

The evolution of fiscal policy in Australia

David Gruen and Amanda Sayegh examine the evolution of Australian fiscal policy and the fiscal policy framework over the past quarter century, from the early 1980s recession to the past eight years of budget surpluses

PDZD8 Disruption Causes Cognitive Impairment in Humans, Mice, and Fruit Flies.

BACKGROUND: The discovery of coding variants in genes that confer risk of intellectual disability (ID) is an important step toward understanding the pathophysiology of this common developmental disability. METHODS: Homozygosity mapping, whole-exome sequencing, and cosegregation analyses were used to identify gene variants responsible for syndromic ID with autistic features in two independent consanguineous families from the Arabian Peninsula. For in vivo functional studies of the implicated gene's function in cognition, Drosophila melanogaster and mice with targeted interference of the orthologous gene were used. Behavioral, electrophysiological, and structural magnetic resonance imaging analyses were conducted for phenotypic testing. RESULTS: Homozygous premature termination codons in PDZD8, encoding an endoplasmic reticulum-anchored lipid transfer protein, showed cosegregation with syndromic ID in both families. Drosophila melanogaster with knockdown of the PDZD8 ortholog exhibited impaired long-term courtship-based memory. Mice homozygous for a premature termination codon in Pdzd8 exhibited brain structural, hippocampal spatial memory, and synaptic plasticity deficits. CONCLUSIONS: These data demonstrate the involvement of homozygous loss-of-function mutations in PDZD8 in a neurodevelopmental cognitive disorder. Model organisms with manipulation of the orthologous gene replicate aspects of the human phenotype and suggest plausible pathophysiological mechanisms centered on disrupted brain development and synaptic function. These findings are thus consistent with accruing evidence that synaptic defects are a common denominator of ID and other neurodevelopmental conditions